Small Business Weekly Forecast | US Chamber of Commerce

latest forecast

Sunny and cold. Storm clouds in the distance.

Its meaning: The latest data show positive growth in emergency savings and small business owners’ confidence in their companies. Temperatures are dropping and hopes for growth waning as it becomes harder to find competent and motivated employees. The storm clouds you see in the distance were formed by federal regulation overreach, which is a long-term concern.

listen: Tom Sullivan and Holly Wade of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) discuss small business forecasts in our weekly podcast. ask here.

Find out the key takeaways from our latest small business report below. The next release of the MetLife & US Chamber Small Business Index will: Wednesday, March 29, 2023.na

new small business data

Small Business PNC Semiannual Survey (February 27, 2023)

summary: Difficulties in finding qualified workers have constrained growth plans, but a 20-year study of companies with annual sales between $100,000 and $250 million found that owners remain bullish about the health of their business.

• 60% of business owners are optimistic about their business prospects (11 points higher than last fall and 13 points higher than a year ago).

• 47% of business owners expect commodity prices to increase in the next six months (6 percentage points lower than last fall and 1 percentage point higher than a year ago).

• 55% of business owners expect to raise their prices in the next six months (8 percentage points lower than last fall and 4 percentage points higher than a year ago).

• 36% of business owners believe it has become harder to hire qualified employees in the past six months (3 percentage points lower than last fall and the same level as a year ago).

• 13% of business owners expect to increase their full-time workforce over the next six months (down 8 points from the fall and down 7 points from a year ago).

• 74% of business owners maintain an emergency cash reserve (up 16 points from last fall).

CNBC | SurveyMonkey Small Business Index for Q1 2023 (February 9, 2023)

summary: Concerns about the debt ceiling are adding to anxiety on Main Street.

• 92% of SMEs are concerned with inflation being the riskiest of the six options.

• 86% of small businesses are concerned that the US has reached its debt ceiling.

• 74% of SMEs expect inflation to continue to rise (three times more than those who believe inflation has peaked).

• 53% of SMEs expect government regulation to have a negative impact on their business, and 59% expect taxation to have a negative impact.

• 43% of SMBs expect revenue to increase this year, while 20% expect it to decrease.

• 65% of SMBs believe they are prepared to weather a recession.

WSJ/Vistage January Small Business CEO Confidence Index (February 8, 2023)

summary: The owner’s plans to reinvest in the business have taken a hit. Does this mean small businesses are expecting more taxes?

• 60% of small businesses expect revenue growth over the next 12 months (up 2 percentage points from last month, but still well below last year’s 73%) and 47% expect profits expected to increase (3 points increase).

• 35% of small business owners plan to increase investment in their business (down 12 percentage points).

• 42% of small business owners expect economic conditions to deteriorate over the next 12 months, and 13% expect the opposite. 43% of small business owners expect the economic situation to remain unchanged.

• 56% of SMBs plan to increase their workforce in the next 12 months (down 7 percentage points from last month, but above most of last year’s forecasts).

• Twenty-three percent of small businesses found it easier to fill vacancies in January, while 17% found it harder. 60% of small businesses report that hiring challenges remain unchanged this year.

• 44% of SMEs say they have been forced to operate below capacity due to a lack of available vacancies (down 12 percentage points).

Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Business Voice Survey (February 6, 2023)

summary: Government ratings are low and SMEs maintain a positive outlook.

• 32% of small businesses gave the federal government a “C” when evaluating the effectiveness of small business programs, services, and tax credits. 23% assigned a ‘D’ to government, 15% to an ‘F’, 14% to a ‘B’ and 2% of small businesses to an ‘A’ to government.

• 68% of small business owners have a positive outlook on the financial health of their business this year, and 60% believe profits will increase in 2023.

• 51% of SMEs expect employment to increase this year, and 38% expect staffing levels to remain the same.

• 50% of SMEs believe the economy is ‘just’. 18% believe the economy is in “good” shape, and 55% of small business owners expect a recession this year.

• 72% of small business owners believe inflationary pressures have increased in the last three quarters, and 61% of small business owners believe interest rates are hurting their business.

MetLife and US Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index for Q4 2022 (December 14, 2022)

summary: Inflation concerns have reached record highs, but supply chain challenges have eased.

• The index score of 62.1 is unchanged from the third quarter, which saw the biggest drop (4.7 points) since the second quarter of 2020.

• 39% of small business owners believe their local economy is unhealthy, compared to 30%.

• 83% of small businesses have been hit hard by price increases this year.

• 69% of SMBs reported they were raising prices to combat inflation (down 1 percentage point from the previous quarter).

• 53% of SMEs cited inflation as their top concern (up 3 percentage points from the previous quarter and 30 percentage points from the same period last year), and 16% cited rising interest rates as their top concern (up 3 percentage points from the same period last year). up 2 points from ).

• 20% of SMBs cite supply chain challenges as their top concern (down 6 percentage points from the previous quarter).

• 63% of small businesses expect revenues to increase next year (up 2 points from last quarter) and 40% plan to increase headcount (up 2 points from last quarter).

• 64% of small business owners report their business is healthy (down 1 percentage point from last quarter).

• 93% of small businesses engage in charitable or philanthropic activities during the holidays.

• 79% of small businesses stress the importance of the holiday season to overall profits (up 9% from the same period last year), but 61% expect inflation to reduce earnings.

About the author

Thomas M. Sullivan

Vice President, Small Business Policy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Thomas M. Sullivan is Vice President of Small Business Policy for the US Chamber of Commerce. Working with the Chambers of Commerce and the National Network of U.S. Chambers of Commerce, Sullivan harnesses the small business perspective and applies its grassroots power to federal policies that strengthen free enterprise and reward entrepreneurship. Convert.he runs the United States

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