The quality of women’s college basketball gets better every year, and perhaps there is no better demonstration of that than the fact there were six teams with legitimate arguments to be one of the four No. 1 seeds this season for the women’s NCAA Tournament.
South Carolina and Indiana were obvious top seeds, and the committee rewarded them with the first and second seeds. But from there, things got dicey. You could justify a top-line seeding for Stanford, Virginia Tech, UConn or Iowa.
The Hokies and Cardinal had 20 wins against teams in the NET top 100. Stanford earned a share of the Pac-12 regular-season title, and Virginia Tech ran away with the ACC tournament title. UConn and Iowa had arguments in terms of recency and momentum. The Huskies, finally healthy, delivered a third straight Big East tournament championship, and the Hawkeyes, behind a triple-double from Caitlin Clark, won their second consecutive Big Ten tournament title.
So, what was the committee to do? Well, cheers to ESPN for keeping the drama up and gluing folks to their couches as they awaited those final two brackets …
After Virginia Tech was revealed as the third No. 1 seed and UConn was determined to be the second seed in that bracket, that left just Iowa and Stanford, the two teams that many thought were vying for that final top seed. Just a week ago, Clark had said that although she thought her team had done enough to earn a No. 1 seed, she didn’t care between being the fourth seed (the final No. 1 seed) or the fifth seed (the first No. 2 seed).
“I don’t know how much difference there is between the fourth one-seed and the top two-seed,” Clark said. “You’re technically in the same region.”
Ultimately, the chips fell to Stanford for that final top seed, with the argument being the Cardinal’s 20 wins (and just five losses) against the NET top-100 teams (Iowa went 18-6 against those teams). But you’ve got to wonder how that chip might feel on the shoulders of Clark and company. It seems like it might be just big enough to get the Hawkeyes to the program’s first Final Four since 1993.
But, like every other team fighting for a trip to Dallas, it won’t be easy. So, let’s take a look around the bracket and check out the best storylines, best teams and sneaky-good upset picks this season.
Greenville Region 1
• No surprises here: South Carolina, the undefeated SEC champs (regular season and tournament) and wall-to-wall No. 1 team in the AP poll, earn the No. 1 seed. As such, the Gamecocks will receive a highly favorable path to the Final Four. They host the first weekend, and after beating Norfolk State and USF, they (and their 14,000 fans) will travel two hours northwest to Greenville, S.C., for their regional matchups. In terms of one-on-one matchups (or even three-on-one matchups), there is no competition for Aliyah Boston in the first two weekends. My only question for SC is whether point guard Kierra Fletcher will be good to go by the second weekend. She missed the SEC title game after injuring her left ankle, and though the Gamecocks should be fine riding with Raven Johnson through their first two games, depth matters as teams advance, and having her back in the lineup will be important when it gets to Greenville. Coach Dawn Staley said Sunday night on ESPN that Fletcher is day to day, but she seemed optimistic Johnson might be back practicing this week.
• Despite being a No. 4 seed and hosting the first two rounds, UCLA got a solid Round of 64 matchup against Sacramento State. The Hornets are coached by Mark Campbell, a former Oregon assistant coach who is plenty familiar with Cori Close and the Bruins. Close will need to make sure her young team is ready to go because Campbell certainly will have his game plan ready.
• I love the Illinois-Mississippi State Play-In game. Two first-year coaches in Shauna Green and Sam Purcell with hungry teams that have bounced back quickly. Both teams have played their top competition close. The Bulldogs have a seven-point loss to SC on their resume, and the Illini have a four-point loss to IU on theirs. That means both teams can rise to the occasion, and what bigger occasion is there right now than a Play-In game? Expect a tightly contested battle, but I give the nod to the Bulldogs. I predict Mississippi State’s defense will show up big against Illinois.
• With no public medical update regarding Olivia Miles, the committee had no option but to believe there’s a chance Miles might return from a knee injury, and it awarded the Fighting Irish with a No. 3 seed. I’m going to choose to believe it was scripted that when Notre Dame’s team flashed on the screen, Miles was seated in the second row so we couldn’t see her leg and no player stood up to dance or clap (or Griddy, since that was the apparent dance move of choice this season). Prediction: With a short bench, Notre Dame makes it through the first round but bows out early in the second round to Mississippi State.
• South Carolina is far and away the best team in this region, but one storyline to look forward to: The No. 1 (Aliyah Boston) and No. 2 (Diamond Miller) WNBA Draft picks on the same floor in the Elite Eight. It’ll be a nice preview of the Indiana Fever versus Minnesota Lynx games to come this summer.
Heading to Dallas: South Carolina
Greenville Region 2
• The Hoosiers earned their program’s first-ever No. 1 seed. Indiana’s core has March experience, and the Hoosiers have been knocking on the door of the Final Four. I think it happens for them this year. Mackenzie Holmes will face one heck of a challenge in Utah’s Alissa Pili in the Elite Eight, but this team is the most complete unit, top to bottom, Teri Moren has had in Bloomington.
• Florida Gulf Coast will be a popular upset pick this March thanks to the fact that (1) they’re a No. 12 seed and people always want to pick a 12 seed upset and (2) Karl Smesko believes a good shot can be taken from anywhere on the floor, and on a short turnaround, that’s tough to guard against. But Washington State has a full week to prepare for FGCU’s offense, so when it comes to the Cougs, I’m riding with momentum and Shania Twain. Let’s go, girls.
𝗠𝗮𝗻! 𝗜 𝗙𝗲𝗲𝗹 𝗟𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗔 𝗪𝗼𝗺𝗮𝗻!!!
We hope our run to a #Pac12WBB Championship and our LOVE for Auntie @ShaniaTwain has inspired a lot of Women and Young Girls to unapologetically be yourself!!!
Happy #InternationalWomensDay!!! #GoCougs | #WAZZU pic.twitter.com/WC077yvJBF
— WSU Cougar Women’s 🏀 (@WSUCougarWBB) March 8, 2023
• I knew LSU was going to earn a No. 3 seed by default as the second-best team out of the SEC, and still, seeing it on the bracket makes me feel a bit weird. This is a team that has played only four games against the NET top 25 (and the Tigers lost two of those). Matchup-wise, the Tigers get the upper hand against Hawaii and Michigan because neither opponent has the perimeter defensive speed to keep up with LSU’s guards, and neither will be able to handle LSU in transition or the half court. Where it gets dicey for LSU is when it leaves Baton Rouge and matches up against an opponent that makes a lot of 3s and has Pili anchoring the paint.
• I went with No. 10 seed Princeton over No. 7 seed NC State because the Tigers likely will try to slow the pace. In a low-scoring game, I’m going with the team that has reeled off 15 consecutive wins (whereas the Wolfpack have gone 4-6 since the beginning of February).
Heading to Dallas: Indiana
Seattle Region 1
• Virginia Tech has not only gone undefeated in its past 10 games, but it also has a 10-2 record against NET top-25 teams and it battled through a tough ACC schedule. It would be silly to pick against a team with that kind of momentum, right? Yes, it would. But it’s March. And when great momentum comes up against cyclonic momentum, well, you go with the Cyclones. Or, in this case, Ashley Joens. As a freshman and junior, she carried her team to the second round, and as a senior, she brought it to the Sweet 16. She eschewed the WNBA last season to return to Ames and fight for a deeper tournament run, and she’ll probably do just that. The Big 12 is no ACC, but Joens still averaged 27 points and 11 rebounds in three Big 12 tournament games, and I like her supporting cast: Emily Ryan (6.5 assists per game) and 3-point shooters Lexi Donarski and Denae Fritz.
• The committee gave Tennessee a lot of credit for playing a tough schedule (the other three No. 4 seeds all have at least 25 wins compared to the Lady Vols’ 23). Matchup-wise, they’ll roll over Saint Louis — Rickea Jackson has been too good lately. But Iowa State has momentum and established chemistry on its side that, frankly, the Lady Vols lack.
• When Ohio State’s press is good, it’s really good. When it’s not good, the Buckeyes are prone to be picked off, and I can see that happening when they face North Carolina. The sixth-seeded Tar Heels are finally healthy with a core that has played together for three years. UNC doesn’t have an elite 3-point defense, so the Tar Heels could get into trouble if Taylor Mikesell goes on a revenge tour, but in a tight game, UNC’s three-year chemistry could be the difference.
GO DEEPER
UNC coach Courtney Banghart built a roster that would stay together and win
• UConn has been to 14 consecutive Final Fours, and this was the season that I kept thinking, “Well, it was a good run, Huskies.” Not so fast, my friend. The return of Azzi Fudd changes everything, and in a year in which there are so many likable teams, UConn can play a bit of spoiler here. OK, yeah, can you be a spoiler as a No. 2 seed? No, not really. But given how much everyone counted out UConn this season (myself included at times), the Huskies will probably be highly motivated and play with a lot of joy because they’re finally all (well, almost all) playing together. Fifteen straight — book it.
Heading to Dallas: UConn
Seattle Region 2
• Stanford is one of the most experienced programs when it comes to the NCAA Tournament, and this roster has plenty of experience winning in March. But this season’s team has just a few too many deficits for me to pick it to make another Final Four run. As much as I love Haley Jones as a passer, her midrange and long-range games just aren’t there, and she needs to step up as a threat to complement Cam Brink and Hannah Jump. I just don’t know if that happens at this point in the season. In a higher-scoring game, I don’t know who the Cardinal’s go-to threat is if opponents can challenge Brink. That cautions me against predicting Stanford to make a deep run.
• Hello, Texas-Stanford rematch. When I saw these teams in the same region, my mind immediately transported back to Nov. 14, 2021. The Longhorns upset Stanford 61-56 after forcing the Cardinal into 20 turnovers. The issue back then was that Stanford still was easing into a post-Kiana Williams life at the point and hadn’t figured it out yet. In the Elite Eight, Stanford got past the Longhorns, but if these two face off again in the tournament, it could be an interesting pairing. Vic Schaefer’s defense is averaging 9.1 steals per game and forcing opponents into 20 turnovers a game. That’s good enough that I’m giving the edge to the Longhorns in this potential Sweet 16 matchup.
• The Hawkeyes will face two strong defensive opponents in Georgia and Texas before getting to the Final Four. Clark is obviously the main storyline here, and Monika Czinano will get a ton of ink as well. But the player who could change Iowa’s ceiling the most this postseason is senior Gabbie Marshall. In the past nine games, she has shot 62 percent from 3, including a ridiculous 7-of-13 performance from long range in the Big Ten semifinals. If she continues to hit at that kind of a clip, teams can’t afford to shade off her as much as they’d like to focus on only Clark and Czinano. She’s going to be key to a deep run, and every opposing coach in Iowa’s path knows that.
• You have to pick one Cinderella every year, and this year I’m going with Middle Tennessee State. The Blue Raiders hit 3s, get to the free-throw line and don’t turn over the ball. That’s a recipe I like and one that — if it gets rolling in March — is a hard train to slow. I like that they’re a balanced team that brings a scoring punch off the bench. Also, we can probably agree that the Blue Raiders is a fantastic team name. I would not be opposed to seeing their mascot, Lightning, in person, though. I would also love for a team to ante up and bring more live mascots into the fold. Your move, MTSU.
Our @MTSULightning is cooler than your mascot. @MT_MBB @ConferenceUSA @MTAthletics @MTAlumni #trueblue #bluenited pic.twitter.com/MzOsg6IpTb
— Middle Tennessee State University (@MTSU) March 10, 2023
• I went with No. 10 seed Georgia over No. 7 seed Florida State (and The Athletic’s freshman of the year, Ta’Niya Latson) because of how strong Katie Abrahamson-Henderson’s defense at Georgia has been this season. I was impressed with how she game-planned for the tournament in her last two seasons at UCF, and that likely won’t change at UGA. But, as good as the defense might be, it’s no match for the firestorm that is Iowa.
Heading to Dallas: Iowa
Iowa celebrates its Big Ten championship. (David Berding / Getty Images)
Final Four
• The potential of Iowa and South Carolina meeting in the Final Four, at the end of a season that had its two stars — Clark and Boston — fighting each other for player of the year honors, is just too delectable.
GO DEEPER
A close race between Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston for The Athletic’s women’s basketball POY
Both of these fan bases travel exceptionally well, and I wish there was a road for them to meet in the title game and not the semifinals. But if a Final Four matchup is my consolation prize, I will take it. This would be a heck of a game with South Carolina having the advantage on the inside (though I would look forward to a Boston-Czinano battle) and on defense and the Hawkeyes holding a clear advantage with outside shooters. I’ve said all season that the one way SC could lose is if it faces an opponent that gets hot from long range. Though I don’t think any team will beat SC trading buckets in the paint, if the Gamecocks’ streaky outside shooting struggles while another team gets hot, it could make life more challenging for the Gamecocks. This game could be close, but I’ll go with South Carolina. It has the experience.
• If there were a Disney Channel Original Movie about a UConn basketball team, it’d be about this season’s squad. The Huskies faced tremendous adversity on and off the court, but somehow — against all odds — they’ve come together in the nick of time to make the kind of run that dreams are made of. Just don’t bet on Geno Auriemma being a part of the choreographed dance number. But UConn seems like it could be dangerous with a healthy Fudd, and the Huskies have shown that even with a bench deficit, they can execute game plans against elite opponents. When it comes to a matchup against Indiana, again, I’m going with experience. It would be a chess battle between Auriemma and Teri Moren, but Aaliyah Edwards and Dorka Juhász would be able to battle Mackenzie Holmes in a way she just hasn’t seen this season.
• A rematch of South Carolina and UConn in the national title game? A rematch of South Carolina and UConn in the national title game. There would be many reasons to look forward to this game: the rivalry between the players and coaches, the potential for the Gamecocks to become the first team to repeat as national champs since UConn in 2015 and 2016, and a nationally broadcast game on ABC. These teams already met this season (though Fudd wasn’t available), and we all remember the fallout from that game. Also, Diana Taurasi and Sue Bird are going to be bringing back their commentary to ESPN. (Did you not get enough of Taurasi’s Gamecocks jokes in Round 1? Enjoy Round 2.)
The @S10Bird & @DianaTaurasi Show Returns to the #WFinalFour & Champ Game on ESPN2
Full details via @FOS & @achristovichh: https://t.co/POYb9xtP53#NCAAWBB pic.twitter.com/4lzKlZ0v9V
— ESPN PR (@ESPNPR) March 12, 2023
• I have the most confidence in South Carolina to win it all because that’s all the Gamecocks have done this season. They’ve taken every team’s best shot, and even when they’ve struggled in quarters or halves, they’ve managed to right the ship in 40 minutes. No team has been able to best them yet this season, and I don’t see it happening in the next three weeks.
More bracket analysis
• Download and print your women’s NCAA Tournament bracket here.
• Women’s NCAA Tournament Cinderella picks
(Top photo of Zia Cooke: Eakin Howard / Getty Images)
